Top Q3/Q4 Housing Market Insights for Real Estate Investors

Between rising interest rates and increasing housing demand with low inventory, the single-family housing market has real estate investors buzzing about what to expect in the upcoming months. While some are pulling back from fix-and-flip strategies and moving into long-term rentals, others are buying fewer homes and waiting to see how the market plays out this year. 

Here at Kiavi, we’re driven by data to help our customers make more informed investing decisions and scale their businesses confidently. Today, we’ve teamed up with our Strategic Account Manager, Brittany Mueller, to learn more about her viewpoint on where the industry is headed and how real estate investors can continue to win. Brittany has vast experience as a Licensed Real Estate Agent, Market Sales Manager at Zillow and now working with real estate investor clients to help grow their businesses at Kiavi.

Here are Brittany’s major takeaways:

• The market is decelerating but far from “back to normal” 
• Real estate investors need to pay attention to the inventory levels at both a macro and micro level to capitalize on local trends
• Despite increased rates, the rental market will remain strong, and many experienced investors will shift their strategy away from fix-and-flip to buy-and-hold

What can real estate investors expect for the rest of 2022? Let’s dive into Brittany’s key insights to learn more. 

Housing Market Pullback

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median home sales price increased every month this year, reaching a record high of $413,800 in June before decreasing to $403,800 in July¹. These high housing costs have taken a toll on mortgage loan applications, which are at their lowest level in 22 years².

With existing home sales down nearly 6% month over month and roughly 20% over the year, it’s safe to say that everyone in the industry, homebuyers and investors alike, is feeling the pain from higher rates. In fact, Zillow recently lowered its projected 12-month forecast from nearly 8% to just 1.2%³, and if this comes to fruition, several markets will continue to face falling home prices. However, even with this record-breaking slowdown, price growth would need to decelerate for six more months to drive annual appreciation down to 5%, which would be more in line with the long-run averages. 

While the recent price decline is a notable development, the housing market is far from returning to “normal” conditions. Despite softer pricing in the more recent months, the nation’s typical home value is still up 44.5% since July 2019. And, with higher mortgage rates, the typical mortgage payment has also risen by more than 60% in just one year.⁴ While these factors have pushed some buyers from the market, those who can proceed suddenly face a much less competitive market, offering real estate investors the chance to conduct their search and consider more property options.

Growth in Single Family Rentals Continue

With mortgage rates continuing to put homeownership out of reach, portfolio rents remaining below market rents, and high occupancy levels, a rental strategy is helping investors succeed in the market. While national rent prices increased nearly 60% in one year across the board⁵, demand for single-family rentals continues to increase for tenants and real estate investors alike. 

• Unprecedented growth: SFR operators report high occupancy levels and strong rent growth on new leases
• Low turnover: Even with rising renewal rates, turnover reaches a record low
• Affordability boosting demand: Mortgage interest rates place homeownership out of reach and increase SFR demand
• New build cancellations: Texas recently experienced a 27% cancellation rate⁶ for new builds - which is higher for builders that cater to entry-level buyers

To embrace the market shift, many real estate investors are converting their fix-and-flips into long-term rentals—increasing their cash flow and gaining asset appreciation. With extremely low turnover (23% in Q2 2022 compared to 39% in 2016), the SFR market remains strong across the United States. As long as an investor can cash flow until rates go back down, many experts recommend holding onto a property while the rates are stable and demand is strong. 

Predicting the Market Trends to Scale Your Business

While there is certainly no crystal ball for the housing market or trends, real estate investors can leverage tools and data to inform decisions. As real estate moves from the macro to the micro level, it will be important to understand how each specific market is faring by monitoring inventory levels and the local job reports.

Sources: 
¹“Existing-Home Sales,” National Association of Realtors (NAR), September 21, 2022.
²“Mortgage Applications at Lowest Level in 22 Years,” National Mortgage Professional, August 17, 2022.
³“Home Values Will Barely Budge in the next Year: Zillow Forecast,” Yahoo!, accessed October 6, 2022.
^{4, 5} 2022 Skylar Olsen on Aug. 18, “Buyers Gaining Time and Options as Housing Market Rebalances (July Market Report),” Zillow Research, August 22, 2022.
⁶ Shea Monahan, “More Texas Home Buyers Are Backing out of Contracts,” The Real Deal Texas, July 25, 2022.